The Block reports that open interest on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket declined 20% as the World Cup tournament ended. Sports betting, which represented 80% of total volumes on both platforms during the weekslong tournament, has subsided with the competition's conclusion.
The 80% sports concentration is the real signal here: prediction market volume looks structurally tied to event calendars, not steady user demand, so a 20% drop between marquee tournaments is likely the baseline pattern rather than a warning sign. If you're building on or around these platforms, worth checking whether your liquidity and fee assumptions hold in the quiet stretches between big sporting events. The durable question is whether either venue can convert event-driven traffic into retained users for non-sports markets.
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HTSApp